Novel application of computationally intense statistical methods for improved asset management

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Project abstract

To install new equipment in an electric grid or to maintain existing equipment, it is necessary to disconnect part of a substation. This decreases the redundancy of the grid and thus increases the risk of an outage due to a failure. For this reason it is already difficult to get outages in the northern half of the Swedish transmission grid for maintenance and installation purposes. As the equipment is quite old, the need for more maintenance and even replacement will increase. When this is combined with the termination of the nuclear power reactors in southern Sweden and more wind turbines are installed in the north, we get a challenging situation. With more transmitted power and demand for available components. In addition it is not possible to plan the wind power production in the same way as with hydropower and nuclear power. With hydropower the production of one river can be stopped in order to maintain the substations in that area, while another river produces the needed electricity.

These factors reduce the number of possible component outages. Hence it is necessary to decrease the number of outages for maintenance. A standard method is to use plan maintenance according to the time since last maintenance, but the scheduling of maintenance should also take into account the condition of the equipment. As the equipment in the Swedish transmission grid is relatively old, it is necessary to find the devices that need maintenance the most. Thus there is need for non-intrusive condition-monitoring methods.

These monitoring methods will result in much more data to be analysed, which must be combined with existing data collected for diagnostic purposes as well as diagnostic indicators coming from other measurements. In total this results in many small problems that can be addressed with new statistical methods. The main shared characteristics of these problems are:
High amount of data
Varying data sources
Censored data

Summary of work

2018. The planification of thermography has been investigated further by prediction using a neural network and by calculating the autocorrelation function.

2018. The analysis of the IR sensor data from disconnectors continues with a comparison of the contacts and the disconnectors as well as the time development.

2018. Analysis of failure data for disconnectors together with new condition monitoring methods for circuit breakers and disconnectors is planned to be carried out together with Svenska kraftnät.

2019 An analysis of the number of work orders of 800 circuit breakers was started. The purpose is to investigate differences in the amount of work orders per year with function, manufacturer/type and pollution as explanatory variables. Several statistical methods have been tried.

2019 A master thesis student was recruited to analyse the current to the motors of disconnectors.

2019 Per Westerlund joined the Cigre/Cired joint working group A3.43: "Tools for lifecycle management of T&D switchgear based on data from condition monitoring systems".

Event log

2018. The Joint Working Group Cigré/Cired A3.32, where Per Westerlund has collaborated, has published its brochure 737. He presented the group's result at a Swedish Cigré B3 meeting.

2019. The paper written to Cigre Canada by two master students together with Per Westerlund was one of the finalists to "Best Student Paper".

2019. A grant was received from ÅForsk with the purpose of analysing the data from currents to operate disconnectors and circuit breakers.

Project reference-group

Tommie Lindquist,  Svenska kraftnät
Jesper Rydén,  Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet
Claes Ahlrot,  Eon
Ola Ivarsson,  Eon
Susanne Olausson,  Energiforsk
Ying He,  Vattenfall
Matz Tapper,  Svensk Energi
Johan Öckerman,  Vattenfall
Erik Jenelius,  Trafik och logistik KTH
Erik Lejerskog,  Ellevio
Fredrik Carlsson,  Vattenfall
Robert Saers,  ABB Corporate Research
Tor Laneryd,  ABB Corporate Research

Publications by this researcher

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A general model, estimation, and procedure for modeling recurrent failure process of high-voltage circuit breakers considering multivariate impacts
Wei Hu,   Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Chuanhai Chen,   Zhaojun Yang.
2022,   Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol. 220

Investments in data quality : Evaluating impacts of faulty data on asset management in power systems
Sylvie Evelyne Koziel,   Patrik Hilber,   Per Westerlund,   Ebrahim Shayesteh.
2021,   Applied Energy, vol. 281

CIGRE JWG A3.43 progress report “Tools for lifecycle management of T&D switchgear based on data from condition monitoring systems"
Nicola Gariboldi,   Javier Mantilla,   Dan Catanese,   Sébastien Poirier,   Ryszard Pater,   Alexander Herrera,   Andreas Nenning,   Per Westerlund.
2020,   Cigré Canada conference

Forecasting cross-border power exchanges through an HVDC line using dynamic modelling
Sylvie Evelyne Koziel,   Patrik Hilber,   Per Westerlund,   E. Shayesteh.
2019,   2019 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2019, 9 December 2019 through 12 December 2019

Extreme Value Analysis of Power System Data
Per Westerlund,   Wadih Naim.
2019,   ITISE 2019 - International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, 25-27 September 2019 Granada (Spain)

Reliability and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Various HV Substation Configurations
Aleksandar Boričić,   Dhruv Bhatt,   Per Westerlund.
2019,   14e congrès annuel de CIGRE Canada 14th annual congress of Cigre Canada, September 16-19, 2019

Prediction of Current by Artificial Neural Networks in a Substation in order to Schedule Thermography
Per Westerlund,   Ilias Dimoulkas.
2018,   International conference on Time Series and Forecasting, September 19th-21th, 2018

Non-intrusive methods for condition assessment of distribution and transmission switchgear
Nenad Uzelac,   Christian Heinrich,   Ryszard Pater,   Jack Arnold,   Daniel Eichhoff,   Venanzio Ferraro,   Nicola Gariboldi,   Mario Germain,   Alejandro Gioseffi,   Takashi Ito,   Petr Kopejtko,   Albert Livshitz,   José López-Roldán,   Jason MacLeod,   Javier Mantilla,   Ana Milosevic,   Sébastien Poirier,   Bernd Schuepferling,   Rene Smeets,   Johan Smit,   Erik Taylor,   Theo van Rijn,   Xiaohua Wang,   Per Westerlund.

Prediction of high current for thermography in maintenance of electrical networks
Per Westerlund,   Jesper Rydén,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2018,   27th Nordic Conference in Mathematical Statistics

Condition measuring and lifetime modelling of disconnectors, circuit breakers and other electrical power transmission equipment
Per Westerlund.
2017,   Thesis (PhD), Kungliga Tekniska högskolan, TRITA-EE 2017:134

Prediction of current in a substation in order to schedule thermography
Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2016,   PMAPS 2016 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems Oct. 16-20, 2016 Beijing, China

Prediction of time for preventive maintenance
Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2016,   Nordstat 2016,26th Nordic Conference in Mathematical Statistics, June 27 - 30, Denmark

Condition monitoring of disconnectors in the electric power transmission grid with temperature sensors
Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2016,   International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, vol. 23(1)

Condition measuring and lifetime modelling of electrical power transmission equipment
Per Westerlund.
2015,   Thesis (Licentiate), KTH Royal Institute of Technology, TRITA-EE 2015:026

Function test and condition test for disconnecting circuit breakers
Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2015,   2015 CIGRE SC A3 & B3 joint colloquium

The reliability chain
Patrik Hilber,   Per Westerlund,   Tommie Lindquist.
2015,   2015 CIGRE SC A3 & B3 joint colloquium

A review of methods for condition monitoring, surveys and statistical analyses of disconnectors and circuit breakers
Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2014,   2014 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2014, Durham, United Kingdom, 7-10 July 2014

Reliability Data : A Review of Importance, Use, and Availability
Niklas Ekstedt,   Carl Johan Wallnerström,   Sajeesh Babu,   Patrik Hilber,   Per Westerlund,   Jan Henning Jürgensen,   Tommie Lindquist.
2014,   NORDAC 2014 (Eleventh Nordic Conference on Electricity Distribution System Management and Development, Stockholm, 8 - 9 September 2014)

Using power system temperature sensors for moreuses than originally intended : Exemplified by investigating dynamic rating possibilities
Carl Johan Wallnerström,   Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber.
2014,   NORDAC 2014 (Eleventh Nordic Conference on Electricity Distribution System Management and Development, Stockholm, 8 - 9 September 2014)

Grade levels for multiple-choice tests
Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2014,   Nordstat 2014, Turku, Finland, 02-06 Jun 2014

Benefits of Reliability Centred Asset Management
Patrik Hilber,   Carl Johan Wallnerström,   Johanna Rosenlind,   Sajeesh Babu,   Per Westerlund.
2013,   22nd International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution, CIRED 2013

Condition monitoring of the disconnectors in the electric power transmission grid with temperature sensors
Per Westerlund,   Patrik Hilber,   Tommie Lindquist.
2013,   MPMM 3rd International Conference on Maintenance Performance Measurement and Management, MPMM 2013, Lappeenranta, Finland, 12-13 September 2013

Publication list last updated from DiVA on 2024-08-22 22:57.

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